France is now in lockdown

According to the media over here, it’s because Germany is testing people left, right and center. In some countries people are only tested if they have (more or less serious) symptoms. If you don’t detect and report the rest, that will effect the ratio.

If you don’t detect and report the rest, that will effect the ratio.

That’s why some of the girls at work were in a panic. Here you’re only tested as a hospital case, and given that people don’t get admitted to hospital during a pandemic for a mild cough, it’s no wonder that “of the people who have the virus, loads will die”.
Of course, the media not pointing out clearly that the testing is limited and there are many people with milder (or no) symptoms is not exactly helping to calm anybody. Especially during the extraordinary situation where civilisation is crawling back under its rock for a while.

Isn’t it currently estimated that this virus strain has something ridiculous like a 1 in 3 rate of carriers?

Talking of crawling and rocks, the Daily Fail is reporting ¹ that ISIS is appealing to their sky fairy to increase the torment of non-believers.

They might soon learn that SARS-CoV-2, not being alive, doesn’t give a crap about religion or rhetoric. A human body is a potential host organism. Nothing more, nothing less. Of course, if they had some concept of evolution rather than a bunch of biblical waffle, they might understand how this stuff works and why dogma is pretty useless in dealing with it.

¹ Google it, I’m not going to sully this place with two links to that right-wing propaganda toilet paper in a day.

If you don’t detect and report the rest, that will effect the ratio.

However the deaths figure is a more reliable figure. It’s probably a better guide to the state of each country than the “cases” figure.

right-wing propaganda toilet paper

I categorically refuse to taint my nether regions with that

I categorically refuse to taint my nether regions with that

Fair point.

But it is fun to aim at.

Especially number two.

From a height.

It’s probably a better guide to the state of each country’s healthcare system

There. Fixed that for you.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/24/confused-dangerous-flippant-worlds-media-pans-pms-handling-of-coronavirus-boris-johnson

According to the media over here, it’s because Germany is testing people left, right and center. In some countries people are only tested if they have (more or less serious) symptoms. If you don’t detect and report the rest, that will effect the ratio.

Got to see the same medias a few hours after my initial post. Ask and you shall be answered!

The same media said that Germany actually follows the international recommendations, while unfortunately our countries don’t have the resources and must resort to lock-down and social separation as the next best thing. They are just hoping that researchers will come out soon with faster, cheaper and easy to produce test kits so that they can switch to the same strategy as Germany.

the low number deaths in Germany. They are at the 5th rank in number of case but the ratio of death/infected is between 5 and 10 times lower that most countries. It seems like their medical services have found something that other medical services seem to have missed.

It looks like this is mostly a statistical artifact. For a long time, people have not been tested for CoViD-19 when they died and were not already diagnosed. The original approach was that, from a medical standpoint, once you are in hospital in intensive care, it does not really matter what the root cause for the problem is.

I wouldn’t trust the German numbers. The collection of the data is multi-stage, and mostly done by hand. Numbers are sometimes sent by fax. I kid you not. That crisis made it very very transparent how far back in the dark age before digitalization Germany is really stuck.

However, medical care in Germany is still good enough to handle all serious cases in a sensible manner. So we are not yet in “Italian” state where the medical capacities are far from sufficient. So not all is bad, but I would urge everyone to NOT GET ILL AT THE MOMENT. Good advice, I know…

The same media said that Germany actually follows the international recommendations, while unfortunately our countries don’t have the resources and must resort to lock-down and social separation as the next best thing

There is full lockdown active in Germany. This is the only sensible thing to do at the moment, you have to keep hospital intensive care numbers low enough to be able to handle it. Once you are above the threshold, people (yes, even young people) start dying in vast numbers.

The only countries handling the crisis in a professional way seem to be South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Germany’s lockdown came far too late, there was e.g. no airport testing and quarantine for a very long time, and initially there were far too few tests done.

According to the media over here, it’s because Germany is testing people left, right and center.

This is very far from the truth. Only people with clear symptoms are tested, and when they had direct contact with a person already tested positive.

I guess the “true” numbers of people infected in Germany is at least 5 times higher than the official numbers. And that is without accounting for incubation time.

no airport testing

The problem with testing is that with a carrier rate estimated as something like one in three, you’re going to miss huge numbers of people unless you can do whatever testing is done in hospitals on everybody.
Of course, as this started to flare, obviously sick people probably should have been quarantined, but that’s only half the problem dealt with.

is at least 5 times higher than the official numbers.

Yes, and that’s why we’re all in lockdown. To try to slow the spread, and to try to reduce the immediate load on the medical services.

Germany’s lockdown came far too late,

It’s not a great surprise. This is utterly unprecedented, and may well be risking major countries throwing away their economies. These decisions won’t have been taken lightly, but there comes a time when the alternative is worse. Something Johnson appears to have started to realise. Trump? Less so…

Once this is all over and the dust settles there will be a chance to evaluate the strategies used by various governments around the world. That’s when we will know what works and what doesn’t and probably find a middle ground from the best of each approach. There’s no ‘one size fits all’ here, just trying to do what is best in the circumstances. Well, maybe with the exception of the USA and Brazil…

This is utterly unprecedented, and may well be risking major countries throwing away their economies.

Actually, we had a big “what needs to be done in case of a pandemic virus and how to prepare for it” study in 2011 by RKI (basically the German CDC) with very clear advice to the politicians on how to prepare and what to do. The result of this study – comissioned by the government – was completely ignored.

The only thing we are really well-prepared for in Germany is an accident in a nuclear facility. Something which is much less likely to happen, and with much less deadly consequences for the general public. Well, that’s government risk management at its best.

This is very far from the truth. Only people with clear symptoms are tested, and when they had direct contact with a person already tested positive.

Still far better than here were only people with severe symptoms are tested.

Yes, and that’s why we’re all in lockdown. To try to slow the spread, and to try to reduce the immediate load on the medical services.

Well that may be the idea, but some people don’t have braincells

Just in case anyone wondered why I point out that I was born in Yorkshire and not round here?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-coventry-warwickshire-52025918

PS. Other information suggest another group did the same in a local, out-of-town, “country park”

That story is unintentionally hysterically funny.

Instead of fining or arresting the idiots, the police….tipped over the barbecue! (complete with a picture of a barbecue on its side)

I’m sorry. I know it’s supposed to be serious but I can’t stop giggling.

Thanks. That made my day. And the picture? Totally sells it. :-) :-)

Oh FFS. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/nhs-staff-warned-to-hide-id-after-spate-of-targeted-muggings

Oh FFS

In large part I’m not sure what use they would be – there’s a photo and besides, while I know of one Greggs off-site that is/was still open the pause on the way home to grab a free cup of coffee isn’t likely. As for the Costa and Starbucks on-site – since collecting would involve going into another building(which actually has patients¹ in) I think I will pass for the moment.²

¹ These days the A&E, of a “super hospital” no less, had 3 people waiting today as opposed to 3 walking in through the door every minute or so. It would seem that people don’t do walk-in but significant “I need A%E” injuries when Covid-19 is in town. I think the most likely sports injury is currently Joystick RSI.

No doubt we will all get the virus sooner or later

Clearly not happening fast enough, so they’ve started organising an STD for us: https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/coronavirus-nhs-workers-applause-clap-for-our-carers-when-time-covid-19-a9426906.html

;-)

The wife suggested we might appreciate a bottle of scotch each or something¹ rather more than a dispersed evangelist session with no singing. :)

¹ A snip at something around 32 – 39 million quid :)

A national clapping event? Well… Wow… I dunno what to say.

Just noticed the time so I switched over to Sky News (it’s one of the foreign channels on Orange TV) to see groups of people clapping. Some of them not exactly following the “keep your distance” advice.

Yeah. A bottle of scotch would probably be more useful.

Oh FFS

Sometimes I feel like retraining; I think I’ll study virology and design one that wipes out all – and only – the stupid and selfish people. Anyone want to fund me with a kickstarter?

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-eu-ventilator-scheme-and-coronavirus-1-6581207

Pondering on the news that Boris has it I thought

“What ifs after effects leave Boris a shambling lump that’s incapable of running the country properly…”

“How would we know?”

Into another working-from-home period so I have nine days where I don’t go anywhere so I’m doing the stir-cray bit at the beginning.