My First COVID vaccination

In the wake of the enormous clot rate of 9 in 2.7 million from the AZ vaccine

That is 9 dead in 2.7 million. 31 cases in total in 2.7 million (both these figures are from Germany). Still not a high incidence, but those are the numbers.

Astra-Zeneca again kind of banned in Germany for below 60 year olds.

Same in Sweden, though I think the limit is 55 here. I think it is still not used at all in (n)either Norway (n)or Denmark.

Long experience of what doctors might do without a good solid reason backed by figures leads me to say

There is a book about this called, if memory serves, “The cult of statistical significance”. I’ve read parts of it, and it is… Well, I’m a physicist, so I already had an unjustifiably smug bias toward other fields, and reading this didn’t improve matters.

I do remember briefing my boss to say that the Boy’s Book of Statistics, Book One cautions against extrapolating outside the range of the data and showed him an indicative graph of the likely errors (based on a confidence level of 95%). I said that he should ask the graphite specialists a relevant question on this matter.

When he returned from the meeting it turned out that the discussion was now confidential.

It reminds me of the Yes Minister quote:

Sir Humpy: Minister, you should criticise this report by saying that ‘some of the conclusions of this report have been questioned’

Minister: But what if they have not been questioned?

Sir Humpy: Well then question them. Then they have.

My second AstraZeneca injection yesterday: No discernible side effects, hardly felt the needle (last time didn’t feel it at all!), and don’t feel any more clottish than usual.

Seem to recall it being mentioned that the Pfizer one having a higher instance rate but can’t find where I got that from. So it could be entirely possible I dreamt/made that up in my mind :-)

The issue with the AZ vaccine is complex in that why make all the fuss about lack of deliveries when you also go out of your way to limit who gets it on the basis of concerns.

In addition lets not forget the commercial aspects to this as AZ is sold at cost whilst other vaccines have a large mark up so who would benefit most from a low cost vaccine being discredited?

Now it is right in my view to look at any reports of reactions /issues just in case as to not do so could be potentially an issue but lets have some perspective here in that the numbers a minisule compared to the death rates from actually get Covid when it is at it’s peak.

By all means look at the reports but do it and then make it known when you have all the facts or some certainity not some speculation which is where we are at the moment as how many people may die from not having it could then be a far more real concern.

Like everything else it is a checks/balances /risks and we all have to live with those every day in what ever we do be it from turning on a kettle/eating food/walking down a busy road they all have a risk factor but we learn to live with those as it is part of life’s journey.

and don’t feel any more clottish than usual.

“Clottish” – is that the name for someone born in Clotland? :)

By all means look at the reports but do it and then make it known when you have all the facts or some certainity not some speculation which is where we are at the moment as how many people may die from not having it could then be a far more real concern

Exactly that. Gather the data, for all vaccine options on all demographic groups and tabulate.

If Pfizer kills under-18s don’t use it on under-18s, if there is a perceptible risk for a group from AZ don’t use it on that group.
At the moment the only figures seem to be for the “open source” version. Although the academics seem to have reverse engineered one of the American vaccines, so that’s open recipe too now. Just not very forthcoming with stats on the contra-indications.

something about paying for our free Vaccine :-)

There’s already a topic for that, right here. :-)

I don’t mind paying if I can choose Moderna over AstraZeneca. It’s nothing to do with the blood clots, it’s simply that I have more faith in the mRNA vaccines. Plus AZ gets around 76% efficacy (revised figure after a public rebuke over using outdated data) which implies that one in four people who have been vaccinated risk catching Covid. By comparison, Moderna and Pfizer are in the mid 90s.
[more about this on my blog]

But still got to wait until mid June, according to the French governments rather optimistic planning, until the under 50s can get vaccinated. It’s still a shitshow and the lockdown coming into force in two hours is no doubt due to the whole “shove fingers in ears and shout” routine. Especially the failure to vaccinate teachers, in particular, during half term. What did they expect? Or the failures in vaccinating in general (compare and contrast UK), or the promises about all those new hospital beds, or…

It’s an election soon (next year?). The left is in disarray as usual, so I fear that if he doesn’t stop acting like an emperor and disregarding his advisers, he’ll hand the next election back to the UMP, or worse, Le Pen.
[in British terms, that would roughly translate to “The Tories, or Farage”]

But, as far as I’m concerned, I want the Moderna vaccine as soon as possible and I’m willing to pay and that’s that.

Plus AZ gets around 76% efficacy

Not sure about your figures, but it looks like wherever they came from is quoting two-dose Pfizer vs. single-dose AZ, or something weird.

This article here is much the same numbers as other articles.

Third para/sentence: “The investigators found that one dose of the Pfizer vaccine was 57% to 61% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 after 4 weeks and that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 60% to 73% effective.”

I’m watching for full trial data on the GSK vaccine. When it comes on stream has a pre-order by Boris for 60 million doses, which will no doubt cause more political criticism from Euro-land. Can these people not stop bitching and do their job of tending to their citizens needs?

Of course ANY vaccine is better than nothing.

NB. ALL, the Sars-Cov-2 vaccines show a higher single dose effectiveness than any ’flu vaccine which is interesting.

Also, the effectiveness stats need to tell us not only the extent to which they reduce the probability of you catching the virus, but also how much they reduce the probability of you being seriously ill, or the probability of you dying, if you do. So a single percentage doesn’t really tell you much at all, especially if it doesn’t tell you which of those ~3 probabilities it’s about.

The 76% figure has been quoted in Swedish media as well, with the caveat that it refers to clinical reinfection, whereas the protection against severe reinfection is close to 100% for all three major vaccines. Not sure if 76% refers to one or two doses though, there seems to be some confusion there.

Not sure if 76% refers to one or two doses though, there seems to be some confusion there

The cynic in me says the generation of confusion is deliberate. Someone wants to appear better and sell more.
First dose stats seem to suggest that Pfizer is marginally less effective, original trial data gave the same indications with a similar margin in the two dose.
At the time of the PHE report 2nd doses of AZ had not been given or not long enough to produce meaningful data.
The AZ does at least avoid the possibility of freezer burns for the handlers.

Interesting story elsewhere that while berating the EU for vaccine protectionism the USA has blocked all exports and is demanding first call orders of the J&J vaccine produced in Europe. Presumably because the facility named here isn’t certified by the FDA

The cynic in me says the generation of confusion is deliberate.

My instinct precisely.

I think Swedish press, despite reporting on potential issues, has mostly been positive toward the O/AZ vaccine (which I think has a trade name now, though not a memorable one), since Astra-Zeneca is widely regarded as a Swedish company rather than a British-Swedish one here…

The EMA feels that there is a clear link between AZ and clotting, but cause unknown.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/apr/06/coronavirus-live-news-indian-states-call-for-people-under-45-to-be-eligible-for-vaccine-cases-rising-in-japan?page=with:block-606c35bb8f087a7cbd52128f#block-606c35bb8f087a7cbd52128f
(horrible URL!)

No obvious data on other vaccines…

The EMA feels that there is a clear link between AZ and clotting

The stats certainly suggest it – but at such a low level that you’re still better off with the AZ than with nothing, and indeed the statistical difference between the risks with the different vaccines seems to be negligible. It might be more interesting if they knew – or if they do know, they were telling us – whether the stats could be used to identify differences between the risks with the different vaccines for people of different ages or sexes.

The EMA feels that there is a clear link between AZ and clotting, but cause unknown.

Hum. If the link is clear, the cause is not so difficult to find: the AZ vaccine.
Anyway, “feel” is not a very clear link.

Anyway, “feel” is not a very clear link.

“Plausible deniability” – he can say what he likes about what he “feels”

Anyone “feel” this has a t5ouch of the MMR vaccine misinformation about it?

The current Swedish and Danish⁰ research into the matter seems to be focused on how it is given, specifically whether it is given following aspiration¹ to make sure it doesn’t end up in a vein (it is supposed to be given in muscle tissue). Reportedly², the recommendations regarding this differ between different countries, but so far it is a mere hypothesis as a cause.

⁰ Possibly Nordic, probably more places as well.

¹ For those who – like me – are unfamiliar with this term, I take it to mean that you “pull” on the syringe to make sure you don’t draw blood, before injecting.

² I only have a Swedish source, sorry: https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/omdiskuterad-vaccinationsteknik-skiljer-sig-mycket-at-mellan-olika-lander

Anyway, “feel” is not a very clear link.

That was my wording, not theirs. They have made the announcement, so they believe it to be the case. I chose to use the word “feel” because while there appears to be something going on here, to my knowledge there has not been any such examination of the other vaccines – so do they not suffer from this sort of side effect at all, or is it just not being reported? Either is possible. Especially if, as Andreas alludes to, that it might be less the vaccine itself and more the method by which it is administered (so one might have expected in this case similar patterns with other vaccines?)

Of course, maybe the pattern is emerging for AZ because there’s just that much more of it around this side of the ocean?

Another thought just occurred to my age-addled brain (it might have occurred sooner to those with more functioning little grey cells). How much of the FUD about the AZ vaccine is being, if not initiated, then at least encouraged by the other pharma companies. AZ has, after all, committed the greatest sin known to unbridled capitalism, namely agreeing to manufacture the drug at or very near to cost price during the current pandemic. How very dare they.

The BBC article has some interesting statistics:

Even if the vaccine was the cause, and this is still not proven, the numbers suggest around one death in every 2.5 million people vaccinated in the UK.

For everyone over the age of 75 infected there is one death per eight Covid infections.

For those in their 40s it is one death per 1,000.

the greatest sin known to unbridled capitalism

Well, you pretty much expect that from Americans… it would be a far greater shock if their vaccines were released at cost price.

Even if the vaccine was the cause, and this is still not proven, the numbers suggest around one death in every 2.5 million people vaccinated in the UK.

Yeah, that’s pretty much my point. If the vaccine kills people, it’s about one in two and a half million.
As opposed to how many from Covid if they aren’t vaccinated?

The current Swedish and Danish research into the matter seems to be focused on how it is given, specifically whether it is given following aspiration to make sure it doesn’t end up in a vein (it is supposed to be given in muscle tissue).

I believe aspiration to be the taught technique in the NHS.

Reportedly, the recommendations regarding this differ between different countries, but so far it is a mere hypothesis as a cause.

It might be interesting to check how many of the problem cases came from the UK and how many from elsewhere.

It might be interesting to check how many of the problem cases came from the UK and how many from elsewhere.

If I’ve heard the news correctly, it’s 7 in the UK vs. 30 in Germany. Far more AZ vaccinations in the UK than in Germany – 18 million in the UK, don’t know how many in Germany.

How much of the FUD about the AZ vaccine is being, if not initiated, then at least encouraged by the other pharma companies. AZ has, after all, committed the greatest sin known to unbridled capitalism, namely agreeing to manufacture the drug at or very near to cost price during the current pandemic. How very dare they.

That was what I was hinting at when I mentioned “The cynic in me says the generation of confusion is deliberate.”
Someone(s) wanting to promote an alternate.

Of course the answer might be that there is a link – to the delivery technique.
To paraphrase Steve Jobs we say to them “You’re doing it wrong”

How much of the FUD about the AZ vaccine is being, if not initiated, then at least encouraged by the other pharma companies.

We live in a world where the threat of litigation means it is potentially worthwhile sowing insinuations of “FUD” by “big pharma” to attempt to discredit concerns.

Example? Pretty much the entire tobacco industry between roughly the 70s and the 10s.

That’s not to say this isn’t FUD, but it’s worth keeping an open mind.
I’m still waiting for independent tests and contra-indication reports for the other vaccines.

As for the EMA, they really need to get their act together. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/06/ema-denies-already-finding-causal-link-astrazeneca-vaccine-blood-clots
Make your minds up before blabbering to the media, idiots.