Between Iraq and a Hard Place

I heard this expression on the news this morning, and it struck me as being such a useful phrase that I just had to use it!

However, my observation this morning is that the world suddenly seems to be a safer place. Sanity has seemingly taken control again!

Despite my morning itinerary involving that invasive hospital procedure (which is why I’m about at this ungodly hour!), a calmness has descended on the world stage which is almost tangible! I feel that, very soon, the birds will start to sing again. Spring may even be detectable on the horizon!

A new dawn, a new day, and I’m feeling good!

Sanity in the USA at last, yes, but it’s hard to see how sanity can take control in the UK in the near or medium future.

You obviously have no idea what the rest of the world is like!

I think Scotland and Ireland (both bits) ¹ should wander off and leave the English to mess up their own country. Maybe Nicola Sturgeon can prank ² Priti Patel into making plans to build a wall around England to “keep the foreigners out”? ;-)

BTW, don’t mention taking control. It’s a daft illusion of “taking back control” that helped land us all in this mess.

¹ I didn’t mention Wales, they aren’t a country so it is…complicated.

² Shouldn’t be too hard given Patel’s leanings.

I think Scotland and…

Hear, hear, to all that.

You obviously have no idea what the rest of the world is like!

Who is that addressed to? If it’s me – well, large parts of it, no indeed, not much idea. But I know how insane India is, for example. Very, and even more so in the last ten years or so than the few decades before that. I know how relatively sane many – certainly not all – parts of Europs are. The UK used to be relatively sane…

The UK used to be relatively sane…

It feels like such a long time ago.

It feels like such a long time ago.

Indeed so.

The insanity has definitely moved the continent, demanding the UK gives them its vaccine production, blocking vaccines from being exported to the UK, unilaterally breaking (not just threatening to break) agreements over the NI border. Boris might be minded of the third of September.

Eh? AstraZenica have clearly cocked up their contract arrangements, but the EU clearly have a case to require AZ to supply a proportionate share of the vaccine; if that’s blocked by the UK, then it’s just tit-for-tat if the EU black export of the Pfizer vaccine travelling the other way.

The insanity is entirely on the UK side of the channel on this one.

We – and the politicians – must remember that this high technology stuff that we do is very difficult. Sometimes it doesn’t work like we think it’s going to.

All of us who design things, be they electronics, computer programmes, vaccines or production processes (to name just a few fields of endeavour) design on the basis of a mental model that we’ve constructed. The model is along the lines of “if we do this, then that will happen”, but a very complicated version of “this”. Inevitably our mental model is simpler than reality. So, when whatever it is reaches the reality stage, it often behaves differently from our model. Most of us on this forum have been there and experienced that.

In this case, the yields of the vaccine are lower than expected. Some very clever people are going to have to find out why. The diagnostic process is often difficult, too. My sympathies lie entirely with the vaccine manufacturers.

The politicians have not helped in this case.

Unusually for me, I think the UK government did a very clever thing, throwing lots of money very early on at the vaccine problem.

Sorry Clive I think you are wrong on this as contracts will have clauses and also it depends on what commitments and priorities you have signed up to and when/prior rights etc.

Pfizer have the same production issues and the EU is clearly deflecting blame as they were slow off the mark in their rollout and in signing contracts as they extracted a bit more discount.

Tit for Tat , tactical pressure or bully boy tactics which ever way you want to see it shouldn’t have any place in this.

Being generous you could say they are only protecting their rights and I am sure the UK is as well but surely collectively we are all better than that.

The Uk for once, in my view, have done well on the vaccine roll out and might even as far as the Oxford jab done the right thing in spacing things further apart , not so sure about the Pfizer one without more analysis.

Either way they have just played in to the DUP’s and Brexiters hands and given them a even more reason to point out why it was “Good” to leave.

I hope someone sees sense and rolls back as we don’t need to give anyone more reason to build up hatred of our EU friends and fellow humans.

Not sure that follows, Clive, or at least not sure I follow that. I cordially detest the present government of the UK, and cheerfully ascribe to them every world-besetting ill, down to and including the Fall of Man. That said…

AstraZeneca undoubtedly made a contractual cock-up of monumental proportions. But is it correct to remedy the breach of one contract by breaching another, pre-existing one? If I agree to sell you 100 widgets in a specified timescale, and then later agree to sell someone else 400 widgets, and if I then find that I can only manufacture 200 widgets for the second client in the agreed timescale, should I instead sell you only 75 widgets so that the second client can receive 225? That results in two breaches of contract, and two very angry customers. I don’t think that there is any solution to this problem which will please everyone. Or even please anyone.

And nobody has pointed the finger of blame where it truly belongs: the naughty little Belgian bioreactors which are on a go-slow. They should be given a jolly good spanking and made to promise to do better in future.

AstraZeneca undoubtedly made a contractual cock-up of monumental proportions

Depends if the contract said subject to say yeald’s , access to materials or even good old reasonable endeavours etc then they may have be acting within the terms. Though I always questioned contracts that said “Best endeavours” as clearly if they failed to deliver they leave themselves open to scrutiny as to how hard they really tried.

Any contract lawyer worth their money would make sure things were covered and thats why I think they are putting more overt pressure on AstraZenica and are squeezing them a bit in public.

But there is a fine line between doing that and acting a a bully and I think they are verging on that.

Also as Richard says it would be hard to deny another prior contact without that party agreeing and hence why this move is shameful as it is putting pressure on that other party to religuish their rights and cede some of the contract rights.

All in all not a good day and one where i think the EU has made a tactical error that may have ramifications.

I am in no doubt the current Uk lot are jumping for joy as they can peddle out more “evidence” of the big bad EU conveniently around Scottish elections and talk of another Indy vote.

jumping for joy as they can peddle out more “evidence” of the big bad EU

Conveniently glossing over the part where the EU would be fighting for your vaccinations, had you still been a member.

conveniently around Scottish elections and talk of another Indy vote.

They’d better be prepared to also talk about reneged contracts and broken promises then… like last time.

the EU has made a tactical error that may have ramifications.

Seems like someone has realised this and some frantic backtracking going on and Article 16 may not be implemented..

Conveniently glossing over the part where the EU would be fighting for your vaccinations

Only because in effect they were not at the races on getting the vaccination program up and running. It did occur to me just like the Brexit lot were jumping for joy over this then the EU lot may be doing the same as they pointed the finger at big bad UK for stealing their supplies to cover up a political drop off.

Personally think the UK has it right on vaccines and if the EU were so certain of their contract hold over AstraZenica then they would of sorted this out behind closed doors. Believe me I have been in many contract discussions and if you hold the upper hand it is easy to enforce and thats why I think they don’t and hence why it has become a public spat.

All in all a disaster of a day for EU /UK relations,as if they couldn’t get any worse, and for once I think the EU is the one who made the error, though I wouldn’t put it past a few Brexiters to have oiled the flames…

Listening to the news this morning, it seemed to me that there’s more production capacity in the UK for all of the new vaccines (i.e. all except Pfizer) than in the EU. This might just be behind the EU’s backtracking. If my assumption is right, the EU has more to lose than the UK if exports get restricted.

And the UK government has placed early orders for most if not all of them. Very smart.